Canadian Housing Starts Trend Declines in May

  6/8/2018 |   SHARE
Posted in Canadian Housing Market by Ron Hyde| Back to Main Blog Page

CMHC News

The trend in housing starts was 216,362 units in May 2018, compared to 225,481 units in April 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"In May, the national trend in housing starts declined following several months of stability," saidBob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "This reflects a decline in multi-unit urban starts in May that leaves them close to their 10-year average following several months of historically elevated levels."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
The trend measure for housing starts held steady in May 2018, as the elevated pace of new home construction continued in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Increased activity is particularly evident in the multi-family segment, where housing starts have increased 9% so far this year. 

Victoria
Langford led the Metro Victoria housing starts in May with an uptick in condo construction. Overall, the trend in total housing starts increased 6% from the previous month and year-to-date (YTD) total starts were up 34%. Rental construction remains the largest driver of housing starts in the Metro area, while single-detached units are down 15% YTD.

Saskatoon 
The trend measure of total housing starts rose in May as a slowdown in single-detached starts was countered by a much faster pace of multi-family construction. The sharp gains in multi-family starts can largely be attributed to a purpose-built rental apartment project that got underway in May. After five months in 2018, multi-family starts in Saskatoon were up by 63%, compared to the same period of 2017.

Toronto 
Total housing starts in the Toronto CMA trended lower in May, primarily driven by lower trending apartment and townhome starts. A better supplied resale market and higher borrowing costs continued to weigh down on demand for new homes, particularly for single-detached units. Fewer new home sales have ensued since 2017 and consequently fewer homes were started. 

Brantford
Brantford housing starts trended up in May, as overall starts continued to be driven by single-detached starts. Despite moderating prices in nearby Hamilton, some Hamilton buyers continue to make purchases in Brantford's more affordable new single-detached home market. 

Windsor
The housing starts trend fell by 14% in May, which was the sixth consecutive month of decline in the Windsor CMA. This month's decline reflected a lower number of multi-unit starts, with apartment starts contributing the most. The recent slowdown in housing starts coincided with a moderation in existing home market activity, which has come off record highs as the effect of GTA buyers waned.

Kingston
Housing starts in Kingston trended higher for the third consecutive month, owing to an increase in the trend for both single-detached and multi-unit housing starts. These new projects are helping to address a shortage of homes in the resale market, as the number of new listings had plunged to the lowest level since March 2005.

Sherbrooke
In May 2018, the housing starts trend in the Sherbrooke CMA was relatively stable. Compared to last year, in the first five months of this year, conventional rental housing starts were up, stimulated by the decrease in the vacancy rate in 2017.

New Brunswick  
Housing starts in New Brunswick dropped 10% in May 2018 compared to the same month last year to continue a trend of lower housing starts so far in 2018. A significant decline in multiples has contributed to a 26% decline in New Brunswick's total housing starts year-to-date.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture ofCanada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 195,613 units in May, down from 216,775 units in April. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 11.1% in May to 178,201 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 16.4% to 119,811 units in May while single-detached urban starts increased by 2.0% to 58,390 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,412 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, follow us on TwitterYouTubeLinkedIn and Facebook.

 

 

Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over

 

Single-Detached

All Others

Total

 
 

May 2017

May 2018

%

May 2017

May 2018

%

May 2017

May 2018

%

Provinces (10,000+)

                 

N.-L.

 

56

44

-21

17

13

-24

73

57

-22

P.E.I.   

 

39

30

-23

18

18

-

57

48

-16

N.S.   

 

105

88

-16

209

158

-24

314

246

-22

N.B.   

 

66

56

-15

100

94

-6

166

150

-10

Atlantic

 

266

218

-18

344

283

-18

610

501

-18

Qc

 

653

748

15

2,312

2,673

16

2,965

3,421

15

Ont.   

 

2,264

2,278

1

2,709

2,666

-2

4,973

4,944

-1

Man.   

 

272

238

-13

581

219

-62

853

457

-46

Sask.   

 

165

113

-32

214

238

11

379

351

-7

Alta.   

 

1,117

1,077

-4

1,471

1,793

22

2,588

2,870

11

Prairies

 

1,554

1,428

-8

2,266

2,250

-1

3,820

3,678

-4

B.C.   

 

1,027

891

-13

2,890

2,635

-9

3,917

3,526

-10

Canada (10,000+)

5,764

5,563

-3

10,521

10,507

0

16,285

16,070

-1

Metropolitan Areas

                 

Abbotsford-Mission

46

26

-43

89

24

-73

135

50

-63

Barrie

 

137

65

-53

75

141

88

212

206

-3

Belleville

 

53

42

-21

22

53

141

75

95

27

Brantford

 

35

53

51

68

60

-12

103

113

10

Calgary

 

369

384

4

588

1,265

115

957

1,649

72

Edmonton

 

487

511

5

803

452

-44

1,290

963

-25

Greater Sudbury

18

4

-78

0

8

##

18

12

-33

Guelph

 

29

11

-62

21

8

-62

50

19

-62

Halifax

 

69

45

-35

179

137

-23

248

182

-27

Hamilton

 

34

57

68

127

357

181

161

414

157

Kelowna

 

91

72

-21

375

247

-34

466

319

-32

Kingston

 

31

30

-3

17

20

18

48

50

4

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

111

89

-20

184

87

-53

295

176

-40

Lethbridge

 

43

41

-5

14

24

71

57

65

14

London

 

140

142

1

95

43

-55

235

185

-21

Moncton

 

30

17

-43

90

27

-70

120

44

-63

Montréal

 

294

332

13

1,571

1,506

-4

1,865

1,838

-1

Oshawa

 

69

153

122

20

58

190

89

211

137

Ottawa-Gatineau

220

289

31

522

486

-7

742

775

4

 

Gatineau

 

34

35

3

92

179

95

126

214

70

 

Ottawa

 

186

254

37

430

307

-29

616

561

-9

Peterborough

 

29

42

45

8

24

200

37

66

78

Québec

 

78

78

-

292

447

53

370

525

42

Regina

 

49

32

-35

190

69

-64

239

101

-58

Saguenay

 

24

19

-21

29

20

-31

53

39

-26

St. Catharines-Niagara

116

58

-50

64

60

-6

180

118

-34

Saint John

 

16

17

6

0

0

-

16

17

6

St. John's

 

38

27

-29

13

9

-31

51

36

-29

Saskatoon

 

102

66

-35

12

144

##

114

210

84

Sherbrooke

 

28

21

-25

85

126

48

113

147

30

Thunder Bay

 

9

5

-44

44

0

-100

53

5

-91

Toronto

 

651

833

28

1,296

1,242

-4

1,947

2,075

7

Trois-Rivières

 

16

36

125

36

30

-17

52

66

27

Vancouver

 

461

406

-12

2,021

1,856

-8

2,482

2,262

-9

Victoria

 

74

93

26

105

177

69

179

270

51

Windsor

 

75

59

-21

21

36

71

96

95

-1

Winnipeg

 

234

192

-18

488

207

-58

722

399

-45

Total

 

4,306

4,347

1

9,564

9,450

-1

13,870

13,797

-1

 

Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

 

Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

 

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

 

## not calculable / extreme value

 

 

 

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)

 
   

Single-Detached

All Others

Total

   

April 2018

May 2018

%

April 2018

May 2018

%

April 2018

May 2018

%

Provinces (10,000+)

                 

N.L.

 

646

393

-39

92

151

64

738

544

-26

P.E.I.   

 

317

283

-11

1,044

216

-79

1,361

499

-63

N.S.   

 

1,006

1,137

13

2,057

1,992

-3

3,063

3,129

2

N.B.   

 

600

651

9

357

921

158

957

1,572

64

Qc  

 

6,112

6,541

7

47,120

28,933

-39

53,232

35,474

-33

Ont.   

 

24,088

23,520

-2

42,710

28,833

-32

66,798

52,353

-22

Man.   

 

1,953

2,559

31

3,192

2,628

-18

5,145

5,187

1

Sask.   

 

954

1,216

27

804

2,856

255

1,758

4,072

132

Alta.   

 

12,054

12,756

6

15,682

21,723

39

27,736

34,479

24

B.C.   

 

9,531

9,334

-2

30,172

31,558

5

39,703

40,892

3

Canada (10,000+)

57,261

58,390

2

143,230

119,811

-16

200,491

178,201

-11

Canada (All Areas)

69,288

70,655

2

147,489

124,957

-15

216,775

195,613

-10

Metropolitan Areas

Abbotsford-Mission

163

233

43

264

288

9

427

521

22

Barrie

 

381

445

17

2,568

1,692

-34

2,949

2,137

-28

Belleville

 

208

303

46

48

636

##

256

939

267

Brantford

 

333

387

16

48

720

##

381

1,107

191

Calgary

 

4,512

4,898

9

10,344

15,180

47

14,856

20,078

35

Edmonton

 

5,736

5,805

1

4,428

5,424

22

10,164

11,229

10

Greater Sudbury

521

38

-93

48

96

100

569

134

-76

Guelph

 

79

153

94

576

96

-83

655

249

-62

Halifax

 

706

482

-32

1,800

1,644

-9

2,506

2,126

-15

Hamilton

 

773

493

-36

6,792

4,284

-37

7,565

4,777

-37

Kelowna

 

762

816

7

3,780

2,964

-22

4,542

3,780

-17

Kingston

 

415

315

-24

384

240

-38

799

555

-31

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

633

1,056

67

672

1,044

55

1,305

2,100

61

Lethbridge

 

404

454

12

216

288

33

620

742

20

London

 

1,936

1,547

-20

2,556

516

-80

4,492

2,063

-54

Moncton

 

233

149

-36

72

324

350

305

473

55

Montréal

 

2,420

2,754

14

30,505

17,593

-42

32,925

20,347

-38

Oshawa

 

1,905

1,606

-16

0

696

##

1,905

2,302

21

Ottawa-Gatineau

3,074

2,990

-3

4,836

5,832

21

7,910

8,822

12

 

Gatineau

 

560

476

-15

420

2,148

411

980

2,624

168

 

Ottawa

 

2,514

2,514

-

4,416

3,684

-17

6,930

6,198

-11

Peterborough

379

393

4

0

288

##

379

681

80

Québec

 

712

683

-4

2,664

5,364

101

3,376

6,047

79

Regina

 

279

430

54

432

828

92

711

1,258

77

Saguenay

 

205

173

-16

396

240

-39

601

413

-31

St. Catharines-Niagara

873

668

-23

2,172

720

-67

3,045

1,388

-54

Saint John

 

65

161

148

0

0

-

65

161

148

St. John's

 

467

256

-45

48

108

125

515

364

-29

Saskatoon

 

613

626

2

180

1,728

##

793

2,354

197

Sherbrooke

 

279

256

-8

1,176

1,512

29

1,455

1,768

22

Thunder Bay

 

7

59

##

0

0

-

7

59

##

Toronto

 

7,383

8,729

18

19,656

14,904

-24

27,039

23,633

-13

Trois-Rivières

130

324

149

1,560

360

-77

1,690

684

-60

Vancouver

 

4,567

4,255

-7

18,804

22,272

18

23,371

26,527

14

Victoria

 

1,003

1,089

9

2,268

2,124

-6

3,271

3,213

-2

Windsor

 

508

577

14

168

432

157

676

1,009

49

Winnipeg

 

1,612

2,000

24

2,784

2,484

-11

4,396

4,484

2

 

 

Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

 

Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

 

Source :Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

 

## not calculable / extreme value

 

 

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation



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